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News, Politics

Is Health a Vote-Winner?

This month’s ITV Wales YouGov poll looks at how the Conservatives’ main line of attack on the Assembly government’s budget is playing with the voters.

The Tories say the NHS should be protected from any cuts, which ministers in Cardiff Bay say is impossible without making unacceptably large cuts elsewhere, notably to expenditure on schools, which their keen to protect as far as possible.

We asked our sample of 1018 people which of the following best reflected their view:

1. The NHS should face some cuts if this is the only way to protect other departments from much bigger cuts.

2. The NHS should be protected from cuts, even if this means much bigger cuts to areas like schools.

The result was evenly split, with 37% supporting option 1 and 35% option 2. The remaining 28% couldn’t choose or didn’t know.

Overall, our monthly track of people’s voting intention shows a slight improvement for the Conservatives, with the numbers remaining very positive for Labour and negative for the Lib Dems. Plaid Cymru are neck and neck with the Tories.

If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?

2007 Result May Poll June Poll July 

Poll

Aug 

Poll

Sept Poll Oct 

Poll

Nov 

Poll

Labour 32% 32% 42% 40% 39% 44% 44% 44%
Plaid Cymru 22% 22% 20% 22% 23% 19% 21% 21%
Cons. 22% 21% 19% 20% 22% 22% 19% 21%
Lib Dem 15% 20% 12% 13% 10% 11% 9% 9%
Other 8% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% 8% 6%

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?

2007 Result May 

Poll

June 

Poll

July 

Poll

Aug 

Poll

Sept 

Poll

Oct 

Poll

Nov Poll
Labour 30% 30% 40% 37% 39% 41% 40% 41%
Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 19% 20% 23% 19% 23% 20%
Cons. 22% 21% 20% 20% 21% 20% 18% 20%
Lib Dem 12% 18% 12% 14% 9% 12% 9% 9%
Other 16% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 11% 11%

On these numbers, Labour are heading for roughly half seats in the next Assembly, though one or two either way will make all the difference of course.

Meanwhile, there’s not much change in how people intend to vote in the referendum on Assembly powers, although even a slight drop in support is enough to keep the ‘Yes’ camp on edge.

REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTION

(compared with previous polls in 2010).

If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

April 

Poll

June 

Poll

July 

Poll

Aug 

Poll

Sept 

Poll

Oct 

Poll

Nov 

Poll

Yes 49% 55% 48% 48% 49% 52% 48%
No 33% 28% 34% 32% 30% 29% 30%
Don’t Know/ Wouldn’t vote 18* 17% 19% 21% 20% 20% 22%
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