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News, Politics

For Whom the Poll Tolls

The latest YouGov tracking poll for ITV Wales offers no Christmas comfort to the Welsh Liberal Democrats as their support is now running at less than half what they got at the 2007 assembly election.

The results are based on a sample of 1005 people, polled over the last three days.

ASSEMBLY VOTING INTENTION

(compared with 2007 election and previous polls in 2010)

If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?

2007 Result May Poll June Poll July Poll Aug Poll Sept Poll Oct Poll Nov Poll Dec Poll
Labour 32% 32% 42% 40% 39% 44% 44% 44% 44%
Plaid Cymru 22% 22% 20% 22% 23% 19% 21% 21% 21%
Cons. 22% 21% 19% 20% 22% 22% 19% 21% 23%
Lib Dem 15% 20% 12% 13% 10% 11% 9% 9% 6%
Other 8% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% 8% 6% 6%

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?

2007 Result May 

Poll

June 

Poll

July 

Poll

Aug 

Poll

Sept 

Poll

Oct 

Poll

Nov 

Poll

Dec 

Poll

Labour 30% 30% 40% 37% 39% 41% 40% 41% 42%
Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 19% 20% 23% 19% 23% 20% 21%
Cons. 22% 21% 20% 20% 21% 20% 18% 20% 22%
Lib Dem 12% 18% 12% 14% 9% 12% 9% 9% 5%
Other 16% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 11% 11% 10%

Those regional list figures are especially stark. The 10% ‘others’ vote includes 5% for UKIP who have actually overtaken the Liberal Democrats in three of the five regions.

On these figures, the Lib Dems would lose their three regional list seats, either to UKIP or to one of the larger parties.

The Lib Dems are also defending three constituencies with majorities seemingly large enough to survive the swing against them.

But in Cardiff Central, with its large student population, a new candidate will have to work hard.

The situation is also complicated in Montgomeryshire, where the party has suffered the double whammy of Lembit Öpik’s defeat in the Westminster election and the conviction for assault of the retiring AM Mick Bates.

The party on the up is clearly Labour but getting more than half the seats in the Assembly is still very difficult.

Dr Denis Balsom of The Wales Yearbook is looking at how the votes could translate into seats next May. You can see his findings on Wales Tonight at 6pm.

Of course before the election in May, we have the referendum in March on giving the Assembly more powers. Here the number of “don’t knows” is actually going up, which suggests it’s time that someone actually got out there and did some campaigning so that voters could find out more about what is at stake.

REFERENDUM VOTING INTENTION

(compared with previous polls in 2010).

 

If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

  April

Poll

June

Poll

July

Poll

Aug

Poll

Sept

Poll

Oct

Poll

Nov

Poll

Dec

Poll

Yes 49% 55% 48% 48% 49% 52% 48% 46%
No 33% 28% 34% 32% 30% 29% 30% 25%
Don’t Know/ Wouldn’t vote 18% 17% 19% 21% 20% 20% 22% 29%

We’ve also started asking people how likely they are to vote.

The poll suggests that half of us are certain to vote in the Assembly election but there’s little sign of differential turnout affecting how the parties fare. It’s a different picture for the referendum though. 53% say they are certain to vote and a clear majority of them (57%) say they’ll vote yes.

We also asked people about the cost of Christmas:

Which of these statements comes closest to your view?

  • I am more worried about how I am going to pay for Christmas this year compared with last Christmas 25%
  • I am less worried about how I am going to pay for Christmas this year compared with last Christmas 9%
  • I am just as worried about how I am going to pay for Christmas this year compared with last Christmas 20%
  • I was not worried about paying for Christmas last year and am not worried about it this year 34%

  • None of these 7%
  • Don’t know 5%

So a third of Welsh people continue to take the festive season in their financial stride. But nearly half are either just as worried or more worried than a year ago.

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