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Number Crunching

The latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales suggests that last month’s record low in support for the Liberal Democrats was not a blip.

They are showing an improvement of just 1% since December in the constituency vote for the Assembly, though they are doing a bit better in the regional vote. Overall, there is little change, with Labour maintaining the commanding lead that the party has built up since losing power at Westminster last year.

Polling was carried out 24th to 26nd January, with a sample size of 1113.

This month’s figures have been weighted to reflect how likely people said they are to vote, with the unweighted figures are given in brackets.

The 2007 result and last month’s poll are shown for comparison.

If there were an election to the National Assembly for Wales tomorrow, and thinking about the constituency vote, how would you vote?

  2007 Result Dec Poll Jan Poll  
Labour 32% 44% 45% (47%)
Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 21% (20%)
Cons. 22% 23% 21% (21%)
Lib Dem 15% 6% 7% (7%)
Other 8% 6% 6% (7%)

And thinking about the regional or party vote for the National Assembly for Wales, which party list would you vote for?

  2007 Result Dec Poll Jan Poll  
Labour 30% 42% 41% (43%)
Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 21% (20%)
Cons. 22% 22% 20% (20%)
Lib Dem 12% 5% 8% (8%)
Other 16% 10% 10% (11%)

On these figures, Labour are very close to getting an overall majority in the Assembly but would probably still need to pull off a couple of shock wins to be certain of not needing another coalition partner.

Meanwhile, the results for how people say they will vote in the Assembly powers referendum continue to show a ‘Yes’ lead of about two-to-one.

If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

  Dec Poll Jan Poll  
Yes 46% 49% (44%)
No 25% 26% (23%)
Don’t Know/ Wouldn’t vote 29% 26% (32%)

The percentage of people who don’t know or don’t intend to vote remains high, perhaps reflecting the lack of campaigning activity so far.

Today, as expected, the Electoral Commission confirmed that it will not be designating lead ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ campaigns, so no-one will get help with administrative costs, a free mail shot to all households and television and radio slots for campaign broadcasts.

‘Yes for Wales’ would have qualified but couldn’t be designated as the ‘Yes’ campaign because there was no suitable applicant from the ’No’ side.

The only ‘No’ group that might have qualified, ’True Wales’ announced last week that it was not seeking designation.




  1. Pingback: January’s ITV Wales/YouGov poll « ITVAdrian - January 26, 2011

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