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News, Politics

Welsh referendum: the final poll

Welsh Assembly, Assembly, referendum, Wales, yes campaign, no campaign

The polling stations are open from 7am - 10pm on Thursday

Well the real final poll is tomorrow of course. As politicians always say, the only result that counts is when people actually make it to the ballot box.

But here is the last opinion poll about how people will vote in the referendum on giving the Assembly greater law-making powers (the figures are weighted for likelihood to vote):

If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

Jan 26th Feb 23rd March 2nd

Yes                              49%                 58%                 61%

No                                26% 29%                 28%

Don’t Know/            26% 13% 12%

Wouldn’t Vote

Read more: Rhodri Morgan urges the Welsh public to vote

So the Yes campaign has maintained its two-to-one lead, in YouGov’s polls for ITV Wales. But the last month has changed something, as there are now far fewer people who either don’t know or won’t vote.

If they all stay away from the polling station tomorrow, the YouGov poll suggests the following result:

Yes   69%

No    31%

On Friday we’ll know for sure.

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