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Election 2011, News, Politics

A majority is now in Labour’s grasp

The latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales suggests that Peter Hain’s belief that Labour should lay into Plaid Cymru, beat them in May and govern alone in Cardiff Bay is a strategy that could work.

Here are the figures, compared with the 2007 result and with our last poll at the end of January.

The sample was 1019, the fieldwork was carried out between the 4th and 8th March (polling did not begin until after the referendum result was known).

Constituency vote May 2007 Jan 2011 March 2011
Labour 32% 45% 48%
Conservative 22% 21% 20%
Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19%
Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7%
Others 8% 6% 7%
Regional vote May 2007 Jan 2011 March 2011
Labour 30% 41% 45%
Conservative 22% 20% 20%
Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18%
Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5%
UKIP 4% 4% 5%
Green 4% 2% 4%
Others 8% 4% 2%

How that level of support will translate into seats is always difficult to work out but later we will a projection of how the next Assembly might look on these figures, calculated by the doyen of Welsh psephologists, Dr Denis Balsom of The Wales Yearbook.

In the meanwhile, it’s fair to say that if everything goes well for Labour in May, with no slipping back in support and no slip-ups in individual seats, then an overall majority would be within its grasp.

Even so a majority of one or two is at the top end of Labour’s expectations, which is why Carwyn Jones is likely to remain a lot less gung-ho than Peter Hain about dismissing his coalition partners before he is certain that he does not need them anymore.

The figures also suggest that the Liberal Democrats, still sometimes spoken of as alternative coalition partners for Labour in Cardiff Bay, will do badly when they face the voters.

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Discussion

7 thoughts on “A majority is now in Labour’s grasp

  1. Interesting to note that in the Regional Vote UKIP are now at even stevens with the Lib Dems. In Wales historically one of the strongest Liberal areas.

    Posted by Gawain Towler | March 10, 2011, 12:20 pm
    • Yes but Welsh liberalism was traditionally radical and the LibDem Orange Bookers have traduced that legacy in Westminster. Floaters who voted LibDem in Wales at the GE last year did not for the most part do so in order to encourage the LibDems to get into a reactionary bed with the Conservatives. Hence the genuine sense of fury against the LibDems in Wales (and in other less affluent parts of Britain eg Barnsley). Labour is best placed to be the main beneficiary of this but there is a full campaign yet and no one should count their chickens.

      Posted by Welsh Borderer | March 10, 2011, 6:41 pm
  2. The Yougov poll certainly throws up some interesting figure, particulatly ref. UKIP and the Lib Dems but it should not be assumed that the coalition in Westminster is the only cause for Libs Dems apparent loss of voters. We should not forget the woefull record of the Assembly government since it’s installation. We at UKIP intend to give as much information on the Assemblys failures over the coming weeks. Armed with this information perhaps many more people in Wales will decide to register their protest with avote for UKIP.

    Posted by David J Rowlands | March 20, 2011, 2:54 pm

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