The latest YouGov poll for ITV Wales suggests that Peter Hain’s belief that Labour should lay into Plaid Cymru, beat them in May and govern alone in Cardiff Bay is a strategy that could work.
Here are the figures, compared with the 2007 result and with our last poll at the end of January.
The sample was 1019, the fieldwork was carried out between the 4th and 8th March (polling did not begin until after the referendum result was known).
|Constituency vote||May 2007||Jan 2011||March 2011|
|Regional vote||May 2007||Jan 2011||March 2011|
How that level of support will translate into seats is always difficult to work out but later we will a projection of how the next Assembly might look on these figures, calculated by the doyen of Welsh psephologists, Dr Denis Balsom of The Wales Yearbook.
In the meanwhile, it’s fair to say that if everything goes well for Labour in May, with no slipping back in support and no slip-ups in individual seats, then an overall majority would be within its grasp.
Even so a majority of one or two is at the top end of Labour’s expectations, which is why Carwyn Jones is likely to remain a lot less gung-ho than Peter Hain about dismissing his coalition partners before he is certain that he does not need them anymore.
The figures also suggest that the Liberal Democrats, still sometimes spoken of as alternative coalition partners for Labour in Cardiff Bay, will do badly when they face the voters.