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Politics, News, Election 2011

The Wales One Thousand Poll

The latest YouGov tracking poll for ITV Wales suggests that Labour is consolidating its lead as the Assembly lection campaign gets underway, with a level of support that just might deliver it an overall majority in the Senedd.

Here are today’s figures, compared with the 2007 result and with our last two polls.

Constituency vote

May 2007 Jan 2011 4- 8 March 2011 28-30 March
Labour 32% 45% 48% 47%
Conservative 22% 21% 20% 21%
Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19% 17%
Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7% 8%
Other 8% 6% 7% 6%

Regional vote

May 2007 Jan 2011 4- 8 March 2011 28-30 March
Labour 30% 41% 45% 45%
Conservative 22% 20% 20% 20%
Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18% 16%
Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5% 8%
UKIP 4% 5% 6%
Green 4% 2% 4% 2%
Other 8% 4% 2% 2%

The figures are weighted for likelihood to vote. The sample was 1117 and the fieldwork carried out between 28th and 30th March.

The Editor of The Wales Yearbook, Dr Denis Balsom estimates that if the swing since 2007 occurs evenly across all constituencies and regions and the vote on May 5th matches our latest poll, the parties would share the 60 seats like this:

  • Labour: 32
  • Conservatives: 13
  • Plaid Cymru: 10
  • Lib Dem: 5
  • Others: 0
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Discussion

One thought on “The Wales One Thousand Poll

  1. If Plaid only win’s 10 seats who’s head will roll?

    Posted by Alan Priest | April 6, 2011, 11:15 pm

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