Over at Wales Home, Daran Hill has a typically thoughtful look at the Welsh election and in particular the prospects of Labour winning a majority.
Well worth a read in its entirety of course, but one thing that stands out is what Daran calls ‘the cheeky win’ – the surprise victories/defeats/holds (delete as applicable) which change the whole election game.
What could be the big surprises this time around? A Green or UKIP win? The Liberal Democrats defying the polls and not just holding onto what they have now but winning Ceredigion and Newport East? A Labour landslide? The Conservatives winning Ynys Môn thanks to Peter Rogers’ endorsement? Plaid Cymru coming from third place to take Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire?
Of course one party’s improbable fantasy is another’s racing certainty, but the unpredictable element is what makes elections so enjoyable to report on and so fraught for the parties involved.
So what are your predictions for the big surprise or surprises in 2011? Leave them in the comments and I’ll round up the best of them.