Here are our latest YouGov poll figures, compared with the 2007 result and with our last three polls. The sample was 1078, the fieldwork 12th to 14th April. The figures are weighted for likelihood to vote.
|May 2007||Jan 2011||4-8 March 2011||28-30 March 2011||12-14 April 2011|
This is clearly very good news for Labour, though word reaches me from their campaign that they wouldn’t mind a dip in their poll rating in order to get their activists working even harder to get their supporters to the polling station.
All the evidence is that Labour voters are now showing a keenness to vote previously only shown at Assembly elections by Plaid Cymru supporters. But the chances are that many of them will still need that knock on the door on the day to get them out, even if Labour canvassers are getting a much better reception than they did four years ago.
When Dr Denis Balsom issues his projection later today of how today’s poll would translate into seats, I expect it will show Labour still on course for an overall majority. However, that will require mobilising the Labour vote not just in every target constituency but across whole regions in order to pick up an extra list seat or two.
Perhaps as significant as Labour putting on two points in two weeks in the constituency vote is Plaid Cymru gaining two points on the regional vote, suggesting that the party could hang on to two list seats in some regions.
Clearly the Conservative vote remains solid, putting the party on course to maintain its record of increasing its number of AMs at every election, while the Lib Dems would do well not to slip below the six seats they have won every time.