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Election 2011, News, Politics

So Near and Yet So Far

The latest YouGov poll on how people plan to vote in the Assembly election is out tonight. You can see the full details, including some extra questions, on Y Byd ar Bedwar on S4C at 10.10pm tonight. There are English subtitles.

Here are the main figures, compared with the 2007 election and the last YouGov poll, published on 15 April:

Constituency vote

May 2007 April 15
May 2
Labour 32% 49% 45%
Conservative 22% 20%  21%
Plaid Cymru 22% 17%  18%
Liberal Democrat 15% 8% 8%
Other 8% 6% 8%

Regional vote

May 2007 April 15
May 2
Labour 30% 44% 41%
Conservative 22% 20% 20%
Plaid Cymru 21% 18% 18%
Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 7%
UKIP 4% 2% 7%
Green 4% 2% 4%
Other 8% 6% 5%

The figures are weighted for likelihood to vote. The poll was carried out 24-26 April. There will be a final poll on ITV Wales on Wednesday 4 May, with fieldwork carried out up to that date.

It looks as if there’s been some movement in the last couple of weeks, with Labour’s lead dipping slightly although the party is still doing a lot better than in 2007. The crucial question of course is whether it is still a good enough performance to secure an overall majority in the Senedd. As always Dr Denis Balsom of The Wales Yearbook has provided his estimate of how the votes would turn into seats:

  • Labour: 30
  • Conservatives: 15
  • Plaid Cymru: 11
  • Liberal Democrats: 4

Exactly half the seats would be really tricky for Carwyn Jones. Any less would be a clear failure to reach the winning post and his next step would be to sound out Plaid Cymru and perhaps the Liberal Democrats about coalition talks. A clear victory and Labour would of course govern alone and many in the party would want the First Minister to try to do that with 30 seats.

One other notable development is the improved performance by the UK Independence Party and the Greens. Although neither of them would pick up a seat on Denis Balsom’s calculations, they must be in with a chance. Some in Labour are wondering if a Green AM might agree to support Labour on crucial votes in return for some movement on environmental policies.




  1. Pingback: The Finishing Line « ITV Wales blog - May 4, 2011

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