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Politics, News, Election 2011

The Finishing Line

Here is our final YouGov poll of this assembly election campaign, carried out 2-4 May with a sample size of 1010.

It’s compared with the 2007 election, the April ITV Wales news poll (fieldwork 12-14 April) and the Y Byd ar Bedwar poll (fieldwork 24-26 April).

The figures are weighted for likelihood to vote.

Constituency vote

May 2007 April 15 Y Byd ar Bedwar Latest poll
Labour 32% 49% 45% 47%
Conservative 22% 20% 21% 20%
Plaid Cymru 22% 17% 18% 18%
Liberal Democrat 15% 8% 8% 9%
Other 8% 6% 8% 6%

Regional vote

May 2007 April 15 Y Byd ar Bedwar Latest Poll
Labour 30% 44% 41% 43%
Conservative 22% 20% 20% 19%
Plaid Cymru 21% 18% 18% 18%
Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 7% 8%
UKIP 4% 2% 7% 7%
Green 4% 2% 4% 3%
Other 8% 6% 5% 3%

Dr Denis Balsom of the Wales Yearbook has Labour on course for a majority on these figures, with the parties winning the following seats in the Senedd:

  • Labour: 31
  • Conservative: 13
  • Plaid Cymru: 11
  • Liberal Democrats: 5
  • Others: 0

It is clearly a very tight contest, with quite small movements since the last poll delivering Labour that crucial extra seat, as well as giving the Lib Dems one more, both at the expense of the Tories.

Turnout will be crucial, with much depending on whether Labour voters are now as enthusiastic about getting to the polling station as the supporters of other parties. It seems that they are, delivering Labour a couple of extra regional seats that make all the difference to their ability to govern alone.

Put another way, any failure to mobilise the Labour vote across entire regions, as opposed to individual target constituencies, could cost Carwyn Jones his overall majority.

It’s in those circumstances that UKIP and the Green parties can hope to enter the National Assembly for the first time.

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Discussion

One thought on “The Finishing Line

  1. Sorry Nick but your analysis seems a little strange, giving Lib Dems 5 seats when N0rth Wales and South East Wales put UKIP candidates on 9% well above the threshold to take these seats. It also puts South Wales West at 8% and Mid and West Wales 6%, too close to discount.

    Posted by Dave Rowlands | May 4, 2011, 3:17 pm

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